Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance Applications of an Augmented GTAP-Dynamic

demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic model from which emerge the implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. From these results are inferred corresponding changes in labour force size and in patterns of consumption and saving which are then analysed using an augmented GTAP-Dynamic, in which regional households are disaggregated into four age groups and two genders. Demographic change is found to act most significantly through variations across age-gender groups in both labour force participation and savings behaviour, with secondary effects arising from variations in consumption preferences across these groups. As policies to control ageing in the developed countries, increased labour force participation by the aged and replacement migration are examined and shown to have very considerable effects on global economic performance.

Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy

The fertility declines associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to slower population growth and accelerated ageing in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. A global demographic and economic is used to assess the implications of these changes for population sizes, age-gender distributions, labour force growth and their implications for economic performance. A base line projection that incorporates declining fertility is compared with a hypothetical constant population growth scenario. The results show that slower population growth and ageing reduces average saving rates in industrial regions, yet global investment demand is also slowed and saving rates rise in developing regions, so there is no net tightening of financial markets. Increased aged labour force participation, considered one solution to the resulting rise in aged dependency in advanced regions, is found to redistribute investment in favour of the industrialised regions and hence to accelerate their per capita income growth, while conferring on the other regions compensatory terms of trade improvements. The alternative of replacement migration is found to require inconceivably large population movements. It also impairs real per capita growth in destination regions but by least in Western Europe, where the terms of trade is improved by the immigration.

Demographic Change and Demand for Food in Australia

The analysis of global population forecasts of the past 30 years by the US National Academy of Sciences confirms that errors have been considerable and that population forecasts have generally been upward-biased. Recent stochastic population projections also yield wide error bounds. We discuss the demographic implications of one set of stochastic projections and adapt a standard global economic model to estimate the implications of population forecast errors for the performance of the global economy and its agricultural sectors. The model is GTAP-Dynamic, a recursively dynamic, applied general equilibrium model of the world economy widely used in the analysis of trade policy. The results indicate that the growth rate of population in the rest of the world is important for Australia’s economic health. If the global population grows more slowly than the median forecast suggests, Australia’s manufacturing and services sectors would gain at the expense of commodities. The impact on individual agricultural sectors also depends on which region the slower population growth occurs

Expression of CCR2 in both resident and bone marrow-derived microglia plays a critical role in neuropathic pain

La douleur neuropathique suite à une lésion d'un nerf périphérique est une condition répandue pour laquelle aucun traitement efficace n'est disponible. Sans nier le rôle joué par les neurones au niveau du système nerveux central (SNC), des données récentes ont démontré la participation active des cellules gliales dans le développement de la douleur neuropathique. En effet, des études ont montré un rôle critique des cellules gliales dans l'initiation et la maintenance de l'hypersensibilité liée à la douleur. Cependant, les origines de ces cellules gliales activées et les déclencheurs de leur activation n'ont pas encore été élucidés. Nous avons démontré dans cette étude que suite à une blessure au nerf périphérique, causée par la ligation partielle du nerf sciatique, en plus des l'activation de microglies résidentes du SNC, les cellules hématogènes, macrophages/monocytes, infiltrent la moelle épiniere, prolifèrent et se différencient en microglies ramifiées. La signalisation entre la chimiokine "monocyte chemoattractant protein-1" (MCP-1, CCL2) et son récepteur CCR2 est critique dans l'activation des cellules microglials de la moelle épiniere. En effet, l'injection intrathécale de MCP-1 exogène entraine l'activation des microglies chez des souris sauvages, mais pas chez des souris déficientes en CCR2. De plus, un traitement avec un anticorps neutralisant dirigé contre MCP-1 a empêché l'infiltration de cellules microglials dérivées de la moelle osseuse (MDMO) dans la moelle épiniere après le dommage du nerf sciatique. En utilisant les souris CCR2 knock-out-sélectif dans la microglie résidente ou la MDMO, nous avons constaté que, bien que des souris CCR2 knock-out-total n'ont pas développé l'activation microgliale ni l'allodynie mécanique, l'expression de CCR2 soit dans les microglies résidentes ou dans les MDMO est suffisante pour le développement d'allodynie mécanique. Ainsi, pour soulager de façon efficace la douleur neuropathique, il faut viser non seulement la microglie résidente du SNC, mais aussi la microglie provenant de la circulation sanguine. Ces découvertes ouvrent la porte pour une nouvelle stratégie thérapeutique: on peut profiter de la capacité naturelle des cellules dérivées de la moelle osseuse qui s'infiltrent sélectivement des régions affectées du SNC en utilisant ces cellules comme le véhicule pour la livraison de médicaments afin de contrôler l'hypersensibilité et la douleur chronique

Global population forecast errors, economic performance and Australian export demand

The analysis of global population forecasts of the past 30 years by the US National Academy of Sciences (Bongaarts and Bulatao, 2000) confirms that errors have been considerable and that population forecasts have generally been upward-biased. Recent stochastic population projections also yield wide error bounds. We adapt a standard global economic model to estimate the implications of global and regional population forecast errors for the performance of the global economy and the composition of Australian export demand. The model is GTAP-Dynamic, a recursively dynamic, applied general equilibrium model of the world economy widely used in the analysis of trade policy. The results indicate that the growth rate of population in the rest of the world is important in Australias economic health. Faster population growth benefits Australias producers of energy, minerals and agricultural products while slower population growth benefits its manufacturing and services sectors at the expense of commodities. The net effect appears to be a gain from faster global population growth

Global demographic change and economic performance applications of an augmented GTAP-dynamic

The fertility declines and increased longevity associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic model from which emerge the implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. From these results are inferred corresponding changes in labour force size and in patterns of consumption and saving which are then analysed using an augmented GTAP-Dynamic, in which regional households are disaggregated into four age groups and two genders. Demographic change is found to act most significantly through variations across age-gender groups in both labour force participation and savings behaviour, with secondary effects arising from variations in consumption preferences across these groups. As policies to control ageing in the developed countries, increased labour force participation by the aged and replacement migration are examined and shown to have very considerable effects on global economic performance